Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 2026, 16(6), 2026-210
An Economic Forecasting Model Combining GA and Caputo Fractional Derivative
Certified Teacher, School of Economics and Management, Yiwu Industrial & Commercial College, Yiwu 322000, China, E-mail: mihaiyann@outlook.com
Project Management
Received February 28, 2026; revised April 3, 2026; accepted June 19, 2026
Available online June 30, 2026
Abstract: The economic system exhibits strong memory, path dependence, and nonlinear characteristics, and traditional integer-order models struggle to accurately characterize its long-range correlations and historical cumulative effects. Therefore, this study proposes an economic forecasting model that integrates a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Caputo Fractional Derivative (GA-Caputo), using quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from China (2010-2023), to address the insufficient dynamic adaptability of fractional models and improve prediction accuracy and economic interpretability in complex environments. The results show that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the research model throughout the entire period is significantly lower than that of the control model during the epidemic period, and the prediction error during the epidemic period decreases by 22.8%-35.9%. The research model predicts an interval coverage rate of 94.2%, with the best performance and the narrowest interval width. The optimal order α is strongly correlated with the volatility of gross domestic product, verifying that a fractional order can dynamically reflect the strength of economic memory. The findings demonstrate that the GA-Caputo model addresses the limitations of traditional models in long-range dependency characterization and dynamic adaptability by synergistically optimizing fractional order structures and parameters, offering a robust framework for high-precision and highly interpretable economic forecasting.
Keywords: Genetic algorithms; economic forecast; fractional order model; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); simulated annealing.
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Citation: Mi, H. (2026). An Economic Forecasting Model Combining GA and Caputo Fractional Derivative. Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 16(6), 2026-210.
