Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 2026, 16(6), 2025-251
Spatio-Temporal Correlation and Influence Paths between Digital Economy Development and Urban Carbon Emissions
Associate Professor, Accounting College, Chongqing College of Finance and Economics, Chongqing, 402160, China, E-mail: yelyjuan@outlook.com
Project Management
Received November 3, 2025; revised April 17, 2026; accepted June 17, 2026
Available online June 30, 2026
Abstract: As a powerful engine of modern growth, the digital economy is fundamentally transforming both economic structures and social systems. The coordinated development of the digital economy and carbon emission reduction will play an important role in achieving the goal of sustainable development. This paper takes Shenzhen as the research area and establishes a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. The results show that the proportion of the tertiary industry, high-tech enterprises, intelligent factories, and the coverage of digital inclusive finance are all significantly and negatively correlated with urban carbon emissions. The corresponding regression coefficients of -0.762, -0.838, -0.679, and -0.910, respectively, are all significant at the 1% level. The development of the digital economy in surrounding cities has spatial spillover effects on carbon emissions in Shenzhen, and the carbon emission intensity shows significant temporal differences from 2019 to 2023. The results show a strong spatio-temporal relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions, and that the digital economy can reduce emissions through two channels: industrial upgrading and efficient resource use.
Keywords: Digital economy; carbon emissions; spatiotemporal linkage; spatial Durbin model; panel vector autoregression; impact pathways.
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Citation: Ye, J. (2026). Spatio-Temporal Correlation and Influence Paths between Digital Economy Development and Urban Carbon Emissions. Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 16(6), 2025-251.
