Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 2026, 16(5), 2025-78
Managing Uncertainty in Civil Aviation Complex Technical Systems Development Projects
1 Associate
Professor, Department of Dynamics and Strength of Machines and Strength
of Materials, National Technical University of Ukraine (Igor Sikorsky
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute), Beresteiskyi Avenue 37, Kyiv 03056,
Ukraine, E-mail: skrivova@ukr.net (corresponding author).
2 Associate Professor, Department
of Dynamics and Strength of Machines and Strength of Materials, National
Technical University of Ukraine (Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic
Institute), Beresteiskyi Avenue 37, Kyiv 03056, Ukraine, E-mail:
strubachev1@ukr.net
3 Associate Professor, Department
of Welding Production, National Technical University of Ukraine (Igor
Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute), Beresteiskyi Avenue 37, Kyiv
03056, Ukraine, E-mail:
constantine.oleg@gmail.com
Project Management
Received March 18, 2025; revised March 1, 2026; accepted April 27, 2026
Available online June 17, 2026
Abstract: The effective management of projects for the creation of the Сomplex Technical Systems of Civil Aviation Type (CTS-CAT) remains one of the key problems in the field of high-tech mechanical engineering. The high complexity of such systems and their uniqueness cause significant uncertainty at all stages of the life cycle, which can lead to financial losses, delays in work performance and a decrease in the product’s competitiveness. The purpose of the study is to determine the nature of uncertainty transformation in a typical CTS-CAT creation project and to formalize its dependence on the stages and steps of the life cycle. The present study was based on the analysis of literature sources, comparison of the life cycle models of CTS-CAT and Information Technology (IT) projects, as well as conducting expert assessments using the Delphi method and correlation analysis. As a result of the research, a typical three-stage, eight-step life cycle model of a complex technical system of civil aviation type with the Boundaries Of Critical Decisions Approval (BCDA) was developed and adapted to the uncertainty factors assessment. The results obtained allow for improving the process of uncertainty management in the projects to create the CTS-CAT, which will contribute to increasing the effectiveness of risk management and improving the results of implementing aircraft construction projects.
Keywords: system engineering, projects management, complex technical system, uncertainty, uncertainty cone, high-tech mechanical engineering.
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Citation: Kryvova, S., Trubachev, S., and Zvorykin, C. (2026). Managing Uncertainty in Civil Aviation Complex Technical Systems Development Projects. Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 16(5), 2025-78.
