Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 2013, 3(2), 65-73
The Financial Impact of Risk Factors Affecting Project Cost Contingency: Evidential Reasoning Method
J. I. T. Buertey1, E. Abeere-Inga2, and T. A. Kumi3
1PhD Student, Open University of Malaysia and Lecturer, Pentecost University college, Ghana P. O. Box KN 1739, Kaneshie, jbuert@yahoo.co.uk (Corresponding author).
2Director of Programs, CaRoRa Consult, Box CT 2O41, Ghana and Lecturer Accra Institute of Technology, Accra, abeereinga@hotmail.com
3Lecturer, Department of Building Technology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, U.P.O, Kumasi, Ghana, tadjeikumi@yahoo.com
Project Management
Received August 7, 2012; received revisions October 4, 2012; October 9, 2012; November 7, 2012; November 25, 2012; accepted November 26, 2012
Available online January 13, 2013
Abstract: The process of cost modeling using risk analysis for construction projects is very crucial for the achievement of project success. The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of the financial impact of risk factors affecting key construction work sections; using a systematic risk methodology based on empirical judgment. The failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) and the evidential reasoning methods are presented as qualitative and quantitative risk tools respectively. Data analysis from structured questionnaires revealed that four work sections are prone to high scope changes contemporaneous with seven risk factors. Contrary to the usual 10% contingency estimate allowed for construction projects in Ghana, an approximate overall physical contingency range of between 13.36% and 17.88% was determined using evidential reasoning methods. The likely impact of the integrated work sections and risk factors provide a clue to estimators on how to estimate and account for project cost contingency. The research concludes by recommending a framework for improving the estimation process of cost contingency through the integration of efficient risk management strategies, cost estimation and design management process.
Keywords: Work sections, epistemic uncertainty, project specific risk, systemic risk, cost risk, evidential reasoning methods and contingency.
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Citation: Buertey, J. I. T., Abeere-Inga, E., and Kumi, T. A. (2013). The Financial Impact of Risk Factors Affecting Project Cost Contingency: Evidential Reasoning Method. Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 3(2), 65-73.
DOI:10.32738/JEPPM.201307.0003
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